Rate of Wage Growth Likely to Turn Around, BNA Index Predicts

/PRNewswire/ -- The pace of wage growth in the private sector likely will pick up in the coming months from recent historic lows, according to the preliminary third quarter Wage Trend Indicator(TM) (WTI) released today by BNA, a leading publisher of specialized news and information.

The WTI rose to 96.97 (second quarter 1976 = 100) from 96.85 in the second quarter. If confirmed by the revised and final readings, it would be the index's first gain in more than two years, ending nine straight quarterly declines, dating back to early 2008.

"The increase in the latest WTI is pointing to an improvement in labor market conditions -- albeit a small one," economist Kathryn Kobe, a consultant who maintains and helped develop BNA's WTI database, said. "The rate of wage increases should show a turnaround in the coming months, but I think it's going to be a slow change in that direction," Kobe said.

Year-over-year wage and salary increases for private sector employees in the coming months are expected to equal or exceed the 1.6 percent recorded over the 12 months ended in June, as measured by the Department of Labor's employment cost index (ECI). During the past year, the rate of annual wage growth has ranged from a record low of 1.4 percent to 1.6 percent.

Reflecting recent labor market conditions, three of the WTI's seven components made positive contributions to the preliminary third quarter reading, while two components were negative and two others were neutral.

Over its history, the WTI has predicted a turning point in wage trends six to nine months before the trends are apparent in the ECI. A sustained decline in the WTI is predictive of a deceleration in the rate of private sector wage increases, while a sustained increase forecasts greater pressure to raise wages.

Contributions of Components

Of the WTI's seven components, the three positive components in the preliminary third quarter reading were job losers as a share of the labor force, from DOL; industrial production, measured by the Federal Reserve Board; and the share of employers planning to hire production and service workers in the coming months, also shown in BNA's quarterly Employment Outlook Survey. The negative contributors were the unemployment rate, reported by DOL, and economic forecasters' expectations for the rate of inflation, compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Two components were neutral: the proportion of employers reporting difficulty in filling professional and technical jobs, tracked by BNA's employment survey, and average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory workers, from DOL.

BNA's Wage Trend Indicator(TM) is designed to serve as a yardstick for employers, analysts, and policymakers to identify turning points in private sector wage patterns. It also provides timely information for business and human resource analysts and executives as they plan for year-to-year changes in compensation costs.

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Brock Clay Joins The RAP Index Team

Government and Public Affairs Firm to Serve As RAP Advisor

Brock Clay Government and Public Affairs, led by Charles Clay, Brian Noyes, Seth Millican and Joshua Mackey, has teamed with The RAP Index®, the proprietary public affairs software solution created by The Felkel Group, Inc. Collectively, Brock Clay’s leadership team will serve in a business development role as part of the group’s RAP Advisors team and will assist the firm in marketing The RAP Index®, which identifies stakeholders’ relationships with over 28,000 policy makers at the local, state and federal level.

“Brock Clay is thrilled to join the RAP Advisors team,” said Brian Noyes, CEO. “The RAP Index® is absolutely unique. Nothing else supports personal advocacy like this. Nothing even comes close."

Brock Clay, located in Marietta, Georgia, provides comprehensive solutions to public policy challenges. Their approach integrates lobbying, grassroots and community affairs and is tailored to meet the specific needs of each client. Their professionals have a proven record of success dealing with the challenges and opportunities that arise at the intersection of business and government.

Brock Clay's professionals have the personal knowledge of legislative and government processes that can only be gained from public service. Their team has been involved in elected and appointed positions at the county, state and federal levels. Through their experiences in these positions, they have not only developed an expert knowledge of government, but also personal relationships, and trust, with leaders throughout the state. They have the strategic capabilities and relationships that can help steer clients through the complicated processes of the General Assembly and state agencies; or work with them to initiate changes in the cities or counties across Georgia.

“We are very eager to work with the Brock Clay team,” said Hollis “Chip” Felkel, CEO. “With their personal knowledge and expertise, we hope to bring more awareness to this dynamic tool.” Earlier this year, TFG released The RAP Index® 2.0, a unique approach that mines and identifies key stakeholder relationships in the public policy arena, while also objectively assessing the stakeholder’s willingness, ability, interest and aptitude for leveraging their relationships or engaging on issues. “The RAP Index® makes it possible for an organization to use its best possible assets, its own people, as it deals with public policy,” says Felkel. “It’s about finding the right messengers, and those are the people who have the relationships to begin with.” To learn more, visit www.therapindex.com or www.felkegroup.com.
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North America Leads World in Economic Freedom, 2009 Index Finds

/PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- North America is the world leader in economic freedom, boasting two of the 10 freest countries in the 2009 "Index of Economic Freedom," published annually by The Wall Street Journal and The Heritage Foundation.

The United States enjoyed the highest ranking within the region and finished sixth in the world, followed immediately by Canada.

One reason the region does so well is the North America Free Trade Agreement. "NAFTA has been a positive force enhancing economic freedom," the Index authors wrote, "connecting more than 400 million people in an economic area with about one-third of the world's total GDP."

Mexico still has a way to go to catch up with its northern neighbors, and could begin doing so by improving its investment freedom and freedom from corruption, the authors noted.

In a first for the Index, Canada, Mexico and the United States are split off from the rest of the Americas and graded as a separate region.

To compile the Index, the authors measured 183 countries across 10 specific factors of economic freedom: The higher the score, the lower the level of government interference. All countries were graded on a scale of zero to 100.

The 10 freedoms measured are: business freedom, trade freedom, fiscal freedom, government size, monetary freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom, property rights, freedom from corruption and labor freedom. Ratings in each category were averaged to produce the overall Index score.

This year's Index aims to be the most precise measure of economic freedom ever published. The authors fine-tuned their methodology. For example, they fine-tuned the "labor" component, analyzing six labor freedom factors instead of the four studied in previous Indexes.

Worldwide, the average rating for economic freedom held essentially steady this year. However, "there is a real possibility that the economic freedom scores in this edition might represent the historical high point for economic freedom in the world," the authors warned. As governments attempt to stave off a global recession, their meddling could threaten economic freedom and long-term economic prosperity.

Of the 183 countries ranked (the most ever), only seven were classified as "free" (a score of 80 or higher). Another 23 were rated as "mostly free" (70-79.9). The bulk of countries -- 120 economies -- were rated either "moderately free" (60-60.9) or "mostly unfree" (50-50.9). The remaining 29 countries were rated "repressed" economies, with total freedom scores below 50.

This is the 15th consecutive year The Heritage Foundation and The Wall Street Journal have published the Index. The 2009 edition was edited by Kim Holmes, Heritage's vice president for foreign affairs, and Ambassador Terry Miller, head of Heritage's Center for International trade and Economics.

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