U.S. Economy Distancing Itself from Great Recession - BMO Economics

/PRNewswire/ -- U.S. real GDP rose a much stronger-than-expected 5.7 per cent annualized in Q4, building on a modest 2.2 per cent advance in Q3, and a far cry from the 5.4 per cent slide of a year ago.

"The advance in exports, personal consumption and business capital spending points to some positive momentum in the economy," said Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets. "First-quarter GDP growth should top 3 per cent, further distancing the economy from the Great Recession, and encouraging firms to resume hiring."

More than half of the quarterly increase reflected inventory rebuilding, with an assist from net exports. Exports soared 18.1 per cent, even topping the prior quarter's sharp gain, amid support from an upswing in global demand and a weak dollar. Final sales (GDP ex-inventories) strengthened to 2.2 per cent, though final domestic demand weakened a bit to 1.7 per cent. The latter reflected a moderation in consumer spending (2.0 per cent), after the cash-for-clunkers auto program boosted sales in Q3. However, the underlying rate of consumer spending, though still soft, looks to have picked up.

Government spending was also weak due to ongoing retrenchment at the state level and a pullback in defense spending. Non-residential construction remained in the dumps, sliding 15.4 per cent. The main upward surprise in the report came from a 13.3 per cent surge in business equipment spending, the fastest in nearly four years. Recent strength in capital goods orders, coupled with the President's proposal to provide investment tax credits, point to ongoing strength ahead. Residential construction also advanced further in Q4, despite a recent pullback in housing starts.

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Consumer Confidence Study Shows Americans Pulled Back on Spending Long Before Economic Crisis Hit

/PRNewswire/ -- Consumer confidence and spending began slowing as early as Spring 2007, according to a recent analysis by Experian Marketing Services, a part of global information company Experian. The analysis, based on data from Experian(R) Simmons(SM) and Experian Hitwise(R), found that from Spring 2007 to Summer 2008, the percentage of U.S. adults who felt they would be financially better off in the next year dropped considerably from 46 percent to 37 percent.

The analysis, which compared the self-reported economic confidence and spending habits of adult Americans along with online site traffic and searches on major purchase items, revealed consumer behaviors to be a strong indicator of a downturn months before the current economic crisis. Not only did the percentage of confident consumers slump, but the number of adults who felt they would be worse off in the coming year grew by 9 percent to 22 percent.

"Our data shows a clear indication that the preferences and behaviors of consumers trended toward a slowdown well before the economic woes experienced over the past few months," said Joe Paulsen, general manager of Consulting and Analytics for Experian Marketing Services. "Having this level of insight into the confidence levels and buying behaviors of consumers is critical for businesses seeking to better understand and communicate with their customers during challenging economic times."

The analysis also found that:

-- Households earning $250,000 or more were the fastest to abandon the notion they would be somewhat or significantly better off in the coming year, dropping by 40 percent from Spring 2007 to Summer 2008

-- Middle- and upper-middle-income Americans (incomes ranging from $50,000 to $249,000) had the largest declines among those who planned to purchase big- or medium-ticket items within the next month, falling nearly 25 percent

-- From October 2006 to October 2008, overall visits to retail Web sites slowed, with a 4 percent year-over-year decline

-- During the same time period, overall visits to Web sites in the travel category were down 10 percent year-over-year

-- Online searches for major electronic items saw significant, year-over-year decreases, with "televisions" down 33 percent, "laptops" down 48 percent and "computers" down 57 percent

-- While online interest in big-ticket purchases decreased, visits to grocery Web sites are up 29 percent, and visits to coupon Web sites are up 27 percent

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